As the last big movie release of 2022, there’s a lot of pressure on Avatar: The Way of Water to live up to the original film. Director James Cameron has already suggested that the sequel to Avatar will have to be one of the most successful movies of all-time in order to turn a profit. And that’s a tall order for any film. However, there is some good news for Cameron and 20th Century Studios. Via The Hollywood Reporter, The Way of Water will get an official release in China.
This is significant because China has one of the biggest box offices in the world, and because the country has been severely limiting its American movie releases within the last few years. For example, Avengers: Endgame was the last Marvel Studios film to play in Chinese theaters.
Regardless, the original Avatar‘s enduring popularity in China likely led to the sequel’s upcoming run there. Since its premiere in 2009, Avatar has been released multiple times in China to the tune of $261.8 million. But because of China’s strict deal with western studios, 20th Century Studios only received about 25% of that money.
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Domestically, THR is reporting that The Way of Water is tracking for a $150 to $175 million opening weekend. That would bring it in behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s opening weekends. Those films had $187.4 million and $181 million openings, respectively. And those were also the highest domestic openings of 2022 to date.
THR notes that The Way of Water‘s projections are “conservative estimates.” And it’s possible that those numbers could still rise or fall. Regardless of how the release plays out, it will be an uphill battle to match the original Avatar‘s $785.2 million domestic run. It remains the highest grossing movie of all-time with $2.92 billion worldwide. The odds are not in favor of that number falling anytime soon, even to the upcoming Avatar sequel.
Avatar: The Way of Water will splash into theaters on Friday, December 16.
How high do you think The Way of Water‘s box office will go? Let us know in the comment section below!
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